17 May, 2024 (16:00:00 AEST) BHP (BHP: $A44.89) keeps rising, up 4.0% in 3 days; +$A1.74 [4.0%] www.buysellsignals.com BHP Group Limited's (ASX: BHP $A44.89) stock price extended its gains on Friday, rising an additional 35.0c (0.8%) to close at $A44.89. The shares have climbed $A1.74 (4.0%) over the past three trading days; compared with the All Ordinaries Index which rose 86.6 points (1.1%) in the three days for a relative price increase of 2.9%. The cumulative volume in the 3 days was at about its average 3-day volume of 8.1 million shares. There were 8,687,705 shares worth $A390 million traded today. BHP Group Limited is Australia's largest Materials company by market cap. BHP (BHP) Stock Dashboard [traded in Australian Dollars, AUD] End-of-Day Fri, May 17 http://www.bhpbilliton.com/ Last $A44.89 Market Cap $A228 billion [US$152 billion] P/E 11.8 Dividend Yield % (TTM) 5.2 EPS (FY2023) $A2.55 DPS (past 12 months) $A3.8 or 378c Shares Outstanding 5,071,530,817 Exchange AUSTRALIAN [ASX] BHP in Indices All Ordinaries [of 387 stocks] Sector Materials [of 566 stocks] EPS Growth (FY2023 vs FY2022) -58.2% Today's VI* 1.1 Today's Volume 8,687,705 Currency 1.000 AUD = 0.668 USD Ave Daily Volume 8,076,338 shares PV$1000 (1 yr) $A1,142 US$1,146 52-Week Price Range 39.52 - 49.58 VI* Volume Index = Number of shares traded today/Average number of shares traded per day. A year ago the exchange rate was USD 1 = 1.5 AUD. USD1000 would have bought $A1,501. A year ago the BHP share price was $A41.48. $A1,501 would have bought 36.2 BHP shares on that day. Those 36.2 shares would be worth $A1,625 at today's share price of $A44.89. At today's exchange rate of USD1=1.5 AUD this is equivalent to USD1,086. Dividends reinvested are worth $A60 ($60). PV$1000= $1,146. Primary Exchange and Other Listings: Trading Currency and Volume (Excl ADR) Exchange Ticker Currency Last ADVT Vol % of Total Today's VI ASX BHP AUD 44.89 8,076,313 98.7 1.1 OTCBB BHPLF USD 30.2 217,056 1.3 0.5 Frankfurt BHP1 EUR 27.6 19,119 0.1 0.4 Total 100.00 1 AUD [Australian Dollar]= 0.6682 USD; 1 AUD [Australian Dollar]= 0.6144 EUR ADVT= Avg. Daily Volume of Trading; VI= Volume Index (1 is avg) Bullish Turning Point Price/Earnings of 11.8 close to historical low The P/E of 11.8 is 0.3 times the highest average P/E of 34.9 in the last five years. This is a value criterion, according to Benjamin Graham who described as a value criterion "A P/E ratio down to less than four-tenth of the highest average P/E ratio the stock attained in the most recent five years". INDEX SECTION 1 RECENT NEWS AND RESEARCH SECTION 2 THE PAST QUARTER: PRESS RELEASES SECTION 3 COMMODITY BUZZ - COPPER SECTION 4 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS SECTION 5 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS SECTION 6 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS SECTION 7 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS SECTION 8 CORPORATE PROFILE AND INDEPENDENT RATINGS Read more... ANNEXURE APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS SECTION 1 RECENT NEWS AND RESEARCH Copper (NYMEX:HG;$4.89 per pound) falls 0.8% Copper (NYMEX:HG) has fallen 3.85c (or 0.8%) from its last trading session of May 15 to close at $4.89 per pound.($10,781 per Ton), ending a five-day streak of rises. PV$1000 [1 Year] = US$1,333 Past quarter momentum down: BHP decreases 0.02% on average volume 1.0 times average. Past month to High Low VWAP Volume Index * 17 May 2024 45.70 42.22 43.67 1.0 17 Apr 2024 45.98 42.25 44.50 1.0 15 Mar 2024 45.42 41.93 43.87 1.1 [*Volume Index of 1.0 means volume for the month was 1.0 times its 12-month average] [VWAP is defined as the Volume Weighted Average Price; High Low prices and VWAP are shown in Australian Dollar] Stock Buzz Other Publishers Buzz in the past week May Headline Publisher Thu 16 CIMIC companies win $757 million BHP contract australianmining.com.au Thu 16 BHP s second offer for Anglo American is still about $8.1 billion short, according to RBC Capital Markets The West Australian Wed 15 Anglo American to sell its five Queensland coal mines after rejecting BHP takeover bid Australian Broadcasting Corporation Wed 15 ASX gains; BHP, miners advance, Southern Cross board rejects ARN deal The Australian Financial Review Wed 15 Analysis-BHP s options for Anglo American deal narrow as deadline looms Yahoo Finance SECTION 2 THE PAST QUARTER: PRESS RELEASES 2.1 Press Releases and Corporate Wire Press Release article 1 of 1, 52 words March 06: BHP announces dividend BHP today announced an interim dividend of $A1.10 per share, franked to 100%. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, March 07, 2024 and the record date is Friday, March 08, 2024 and it is payable on Thursday, March 28. BUZZ article 1 of 2, Source: abc.net.au, 438 words April 26: Anglo American rejects BHP's $60 billion offer, says bid 'undervalues' its prospects In short: Anglo American has rejected a $60 billion bid by BHP. Chairman Stuart Chambers describes the proposal as "opportunistic" and unattractive to shareholders. Questions about possible information leaks were raised after share prices spiked in the UK for Anglo American before BHP formally announced its offer. Anglo American has rejected rival BHP's $60 billion takeover proposal, saying the bid significantly undervalued the London-listed miner and its prospects. In a statement, Anglo American said it had unanimously rejected the proposal, and that it believed the offer was unattractive for shareholders. Anglo American chairman Stuart Chambers said the proposal was "opportunistic". "The BHP proposal is opportunistic and fails to value Anglo American's prospects, while significantly diluting the relative value upside participation of Anglo American's shareholders relative to BHP's shareholders," Mr. Chambers said. "The proposed structure is also highly unattractive, creating substantial uncertainty and execution risk borne almost entirely by Anglo American, its shareholders and its other stakeholders. "Anglo American has defined clear strategic priorities - of operational excellence, portfolio, and growth - to deliver full value potential and is entirely focused on that delivery." Questions raised over share price spike Earlier on Friday, questions were raised about a potential leak over a spike in the share price of Anglo American's London-listed shares before BHP formally announced its takeover bid. Shares in Anglo American rose by around 2.8 per cent between 3pm GMT (12am AEST) and the market close at 3.30pm GMT in London on Wednesday. It issued a statement nearly eight hours later, at around 11pm GMT, saying it had received an approach from BHP. "This spike in Anglo's share price before the public announcement of the BHP bid raises questions about the integrity of the UK's markets which the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) are likely to want to investigate," said Harvey Knight, head of the financial services regulatory group at law firm Withers. Britain's FCA does not typically comment on individual trading irregularities which it investigates and declined to comment on whether it would review the activity. In a statement emailed to Reuters, the regulator said it "cannot comment on individual cases". A spokesperson for Anglo American declined to comment when asked whether the company had contacted the FCA about any potential irregular trading or whether the regulator had been in touch. "The price spiked significantly. BUZZ article 2 of 2, Source: abc.net.au, 987 words April 26: Anglo American rejects BHP $60b takeover offer, saying it 'significantly undervalues' the mining company - as it happened The ASX has ended lower on Friday, while Anglo American has rejected BHP's $60 billion takeover bid, saying it "undervalues" the British mining company and its future prospects. Look back at the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our blog. Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice. Live updates By Kate Ainsworth ASX 200: -1.4% at 7,576 points (final figures below) Australian dollar: +0.4% at 65.45 US cents S&P 500: -0.6% to 5,048 points Nasdaq: -0.6% to 15,611 points FTSE 100: +0.5% to 8,078 points Stoxx600: -0.6% to 502 points Spot gold: +0.4% to $US2,351/ounce Brent crude: +0.5% to $US89.49/barrel Iron ore: -1.1% to $US116.60/tonne Bitcoin: -0.7% to $US64,319 That's where we'll leave the blog for today - and the week Fri, 12:51pm By Kate Ainsworth Thanks for following along throughout the day, or keeping us company during the shorter trading week due to yesterday's Anzac Day public holiday. Fear not though, we'll be back to do it all again on Monday morning - and we might even have a new face joining us. 🤫 Until then, you can catch up on today's developments below, or download the ABC News app and subscribe to our range of news alerts for the latest news. And remember, you can catch a wrap of the week that was with Close of Business on ABC News tonight at 9:30pm AEST, or anytime on ABC iview. Key Event ASX ends lower as BHP shares fall on Anglo American bid Fri, 12:40pm By Kate Ainsworth The ASX 200 ended lower at the close on Friday, making it the second straight loss for the market as jitters around hotter inflation and possible rate hikes from the RBA flowed through. At the end of trade, the ASX 200 was 1.4% lower to 7,576 points. Given the slump, all 11 sectors ended in the red. Industrials fell the most (-2.2%) followed by real estate (-1.9%), telecommunications (-1.9%), financial (-1.6%), materials (-1.4%) and consumer discretionary (-1.4%). Energy, consumer staples and utilities all fell by 0.9% each, while healthcare dipped by 0.6%, and IT was 0.4% lower. Gold miner Newmont remained on solid footing throughout the trading day, after its first quarter profit results beat expectations thanks to the higher gold price, sending its share price 13.9% higher at the close. But it was mining giant BHP that was the biggest drag on the local share market, falling by 4.6% after making a takeover bid worth $60 billion for Anglo American. The drop suggested BHP's shareholders weren't thrilled at the prospect - and when trade finished at 4pm AEST, Anglo American wasted no time in confirming it was rejecting the proposal, labelling it "opportunistic" and significantly undervaluing the company. (In fact, the statement was published to the London Stock Exchange just 56 seconds after the ASX had shut for the week.) As for the top five performing stocks for the day: Newmont +13.9% ResMed +9.6% Champion Iron +5.3% Perseus Mining +5% Fortescue +3.4% And the bottom five performers this Friday: Magellan Financial -5.1% Boss Energy -5% Insignia Financial -4.9% Polynovo -4.8% BHP -4.6% Key Event Anglo's decision 'not being made with the agreement or approval of BHP' Fri, 12:18pm By Kate Ainsworth The final part of Anglo American's full statement to the LSE advises its shareholders "to take no action in relation to the possible offer". "A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate," it said. "There can be no certainty that any firm offer will be made." The statement then ends with a final line: "This announcement is not being made with the agreement or approval of BHP." BHP is also yet to make any announcement to the ASX - the last update was at 7:33am this morning, confirming that they had put forward a bid for the company. We've reached out to BHP for comment, but are yet to hear back. Key Event Anglo chair confident about miner's future in copper Fri, 12:06pm By Kate Ainsworth Anglo American chairman Stuart Chambers also used a statement to the London Stock Exchange to reiterate the forecasted growth for copper, which makes up just under a third of the mining company's total production. "Anglo American is well positioned to create significant value from its portfolio of high quality assets that are well aligned with the energy transition and other major demand trends," he said. "With copper representing 30% of Anglo American's total production, and with the benefit of well-sequenced and value-accretive growth options in copper and other structurally attractive products, the Board believes that Anglo American's shareholders stand to benefit from what we expect to be significant value appreciation as the full impact of those trends materialises." Key Event BHP proposal is 'opportunistic', says Anglo chairman Fri, 12:00pm By Kate Ainsworth The chairman of Anglo American, Stuart Chambers, has issued a statement to the London Stock Exchange as part of the miner's announcement rejecting the proposal. "The BHP proposal is opportunistic and fails to value Anglo American's prospects, while significantly diluting the relative value upside participation of Anglo American's shareholders relative to BHP's shareholders," he said. "The proposed structure is also highly unattractive, creating substantial uncertainty and execution risk borne almost entirely by Anglo American, its shareholders and its other stakeholders. "Anglo American has defined clear strategic priorities - of operational excellence, portfolio, and growth - to deliver full value potential and is entirely focused on that delivery." Key Event BREAKING: Anglo American rejects BHP takeover offer Fri, 11:46am By Kate Ainsworth Anglo American has rejected a $60 billion takeover offer made by mining giant BHP, saying the bid "significantly undervalues" the London-listed mining company and its future prospects. BHP only confirmed it had made the offer this morning. Key Event Calls grow for RBA to hike rates again, and again Fri, 11:02am By David Taylor Inflation is too high, says former Treasury economist Warren Hogan. "It's sticky, it's persistent and it's stubborn," he says. Inflation peaked in Australia at close to 8% in late 2022, and has since fallen significantly to 3.6%. But Warren Hogan says that's where it appears to have stalled. "We're trying to pull off something no country has ever done, we've never done," he says. "And that is get rid of inflation without a recession. SECTION 3 COMMODITY BUZZ - COPPER BUZZ article 1 of 4, Source: CNBC, 262 words Apr 20 2024: 'Big change' in global growth is bullish for commodities including copper, says VanEck CEO Investors should consider commodities due to a "big change" involving international expansion, according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck. "The world economy started growing again," van Eck told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. He singles out China, the world's second-largest economy behind the U.S., as a key driver in the expansion. "China which has been such a huge driver of growth and so negative for growth over the last year or two. Manufacturing PMI is now positive in China as of March," said van Eck. "You now have growth. So, that leads to your reflation trade." His firm has exposure to commodities from gold to energy to copper. Its exchange-traded funds include the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) . They're up 10% and 9%, respectively, year to date. Van Eck highlights copper 's momentum as a positive sign for demand. The industrial metal is up almost 16% this year, as of Friday's close. "It's a good measure of global economic growth and energy prices. [They] probably have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves, but they're reflecting the world is growing," he said. He also sees U.S. government spending as bullish catalyst for the commodities trade. "Fiscal spending is running so super high," van Eck said. "That's leading to this global growth trade, too. So, that's why I like commodities because I think it's more than just a headline." As of Friday's close, the S&P GSCI Index Spot, which tracks commodities from crude oil to cocoa, is up 10% so far this year. Source: CNBC BUZZ article 2 of 4, Source: CNBC, 536 words Apr 10 2024: Copper prices climb to 2024 high as Citi calls the start of the metal's second bull market this century Soaring copper prices show no signs of slowing down, analysts say, with the red metal's rally fueled by supply risks and improving demand prospects for energy transition metals. Copper prices with May delivery traded at $4.323 per pound in New York as of Wednesday morning, extending gains after settling at its highest level since June 2022 in the previous session. Copper briefly hit a high of $4.334 in intraday trading on Tuesday, reflecting its highest level since the middle of January last year. Three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange traded 0.6% higher at $9,477 per metric ton. Demand for copper is widely considered a proxy for economic health. The base metal is critically important to the energy transition ecosystem and is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines. Wall Street banks are bullish on the outlook for copper prices through to the end of the year. Earlier this week, analysts at Citi said that they believe the second secular bull market of copper this century is now underway - roughly 20 years after the first such cycle. Citi said on Monday that it expects copper prices to trend higher over the coming months, averaging $10,000 per metric ton by the end of the year and climbing to $12,000 in 2026, according to the bank's base-case scenario. "Explosive price upside is possible over the next 2-3 years too, if a strong cyclical recovery occurs at any time, with prices potentially rising more than 2/3rds to $15k/t+ in this, our bull case scenario," analysts at Citi said in a research note. "Our $12k/t base case assumes only a small uptick in cyclical demand growth over the course of 2025 and 2026," they added. 'Commodity markets always self-solve' Separately, analysts at Bank of America have raised their 2024 price target for copper to $9,321, up from its previous forecast of $8,625. The Wall Street bank said Monday that copper was at the "at the epicentre of the energy transition, which means that the lack of mine supply growth is being felt acutely." "Tight concentrates availability is increasingly capping production at China's smelters and refiners, potentially pushing consumers of refined metal back into international markets," analysts at Bank of America said in a research note. "At the same time, demand in the US and Europe should bounce back as economies bottom out; this, along with rising demand from the energy transition, will likely move the copper market into deficit this year," they added. Not everyone's convinced copper prices will hold onto projected gains this year. "Commodity markets always self-solve," Colin Hamilton, commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Street Signs Europe" on Tuesday. "They always find ways of softening things out. If we can't solve from the supply side, well guess what, we'll hurt demand and that's what inflation naturally does. That's why we had underperformance for much of the past year," Hamilton said. "So, if copper gets say to let's say four times the aluminum price, you would tend to see a bit of switching and substitution. I see some very high copper price targets out there: we could reach them temporarily, but then you would see demand adjusting in key areas." Soure: CNBC BUZZ article 3 of 4, Source: CNBC, 443 words Feb 05 2024: Bill Gates- and Jeff Bezos-backed startup discovers large-scale copper deposit in Zambia KoBold Metals, a California-based metals exploration company backed by billionaires including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, said it has discovered a vast copper deposit in Zambia. The rare discovery of a large-scale copper deposit could help in the global race to secure a supply of materials critical to the energy transition. Copper is in high demand due to its use in renewable energy and electric vehicles. A spokesperson for KoBold Metals told CNBC on Monday that the company believes its Mingomba copper project in Zambia "will be one of the world's biggest high-grade large copper mines." "It is Kakula-scale in size and grade," KoBold Metals President Josh Goldman said in a statement shared on the firm's account on social media site X. The giant Kamoa-Kakula copper mine is situated just across Zambia's northern border in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company founded by billionaire magnate Robert Friedland, owns nearly 40% of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine. It has described the complex as "the world's fastest-growing, highest-grade [and] lowest carbon major copper mine." It produced nearly 400,000 metric tons of copper last year. Zambia is Africa's second-largest copper producer after the Democratic Republic of the Congo. KoBold Metals says it uses artificial intelligence to create "Google Maps" of the Earth's crust to help find new deposits of copper, lithium, cobalt and nickel. The Silicon Valley startup's investors include U.S. venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, Norwegian energy giant Equinor, the world's largest mining group BHP, and Breakthrough Energy, a climate and technology fund founded by Bill Gates in 2015. Some of Breakthrough Energy's backers are Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio, Virgin Group's Richard Branson, Alibaba's Jack Ma and Amazon's Jeff Bezos. KoBold Metals has said it aims to start producing copper at its mine in Zambia within 10 years, in a project that could have significant economic ramifications for the African nation. "What they've discovered is quite phenomenal," said Jito Kayumba, special assistant to the Zambian president on economic, investment and development affairs. "There is a lot that we as Zambians can look forward to in terms of the announcement of their mine development which should be coming on stream," Kayumba said in a video posted Monday on social media site X. As part of a rapid uptick in demand for critical minerals, the International Energy Agency has warned that the current global supply falls short of what is needed to transform the energy sector, given a relatively high geographical concentration of the production of many energy transition elements. Most rare earth reserves are located in China, while Vietnam, Brazil and Russia are also major rare earths countries based on reserve volume. Source: CNBC BUZZ article 4 of 4, Source: CNBC, 874 words Jan 25 2024: Commodity markets are in a 'super squeeze' - and higher prices could be here to stay Global commodity markets are in a "super squeeze" amid supply disruptions and lack of investment - and it's only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said. "For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a 'super-squeeze,'" its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC. A commodity "super squeeze" is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained. "If it's a supply constraint that's driving high commodity prices, it's a very different story for global growth," said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are "not as positive." "We see the deeper 'super-squeeze' factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated," he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition. Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space. "The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected," he added. Lack of investments The world's pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out. However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals - in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said. As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July. At the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what is largely deemed as a step forward for energy transition and a further boost in demand for metals required for that transition. "Large-scale mining projects can take 15-20 years, and the last decade has seen a lack of investment in exploration and production for key energy transition materials," the report said. Annual capital investments in these metals averaged $45 billion in the last two decades, and must rise to around $70 billion each year through to 2030 to ensure an ample stream of supply, according to the ETC report. Without more investment in new capacities, supply will be constrained, HSBC's Bloxham said, adding that "for any given amount of demand," it should be expected that commodity prices will stay more elevated than in the past. "That seems to be playing out across many of the commodities at the moment." Technology could also be a gamechanger if a development came along and made it much easier to extract the metals used in the battery space, Bloxham added. He did not say how long it will take global commodity markets to move out of the squeeze, but one way out of it - which would also push commodity prices lower - is a "bigger and deeper [economic] downturn globally," he said. "Commodities are notoriously volatile asset classes, with a long history that is prone to a short squeeze and the current landscape points to more of the same," said Brian Luke, senior director and head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He highlighted that extreme weather events and geopolitics have also impacted the agricultural and energy commodity baskets. Metals most impacted Analysts say metals will likely see the most upside. Bloxham noted that aside from clean energy metals, iron ore was also on his list due to falling inventory and a lack of investments into expanding capacity. Iron ore has seen a price jump of over 24% in the last year, according to data from FactSet. The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $135.48 per ton. "The reason why [iron ore] has a sudden squeeze-up is because inventory has been very low," said Bank of America Securities' head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao. She noted that in spite of China's property crisis, steel production has continued, fueling demand for iron ore and coking coal, which are integral to steelmaking. China, which makes around 55% of the world's steel, produced 874.7 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of 2023 - up 1.4% across the same period in 2022. What squeeze? While risks remain, one analyst is of the view that commodity markets are still "adequately supplied" for the most part. "The commodity markets are currently focused on slumping demand due to the sluggish global economy. As such, there's not too much concern about supplies," said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at financial services firm StoneX. Oil, for one, saw an increase in global oil inventories in 2023. Some are still hoping that a rebound in Chinese demand will help. "A resurgence from Asia will go a long way in determining if commodities will have a breakout year," said S&P's Luke, adding that 2023 saw a year of unfulfilled demand from China which weighed heavily on commodity markets. Source: CNBC SECTION 4 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS 4.1 Downtrend Negative MACD: - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 43.77 minus the 26-day EMA of 43.81 is negative, suggesting a bearish signal. Trailing Relative Strength (6 months) at 49 percentile: - The stock has a 6-month relative strength of 49 in the Australian market of 1,559 stocks and 13 ADRs which means it has underperformed 51% of the market. 4.2 Overbought/Bearish Signals: - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 71.1 has penetrated the overbought line of 70, suggesting the price gain of 4.3% in the last 14 days is unusually high. - The stock is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -7.3, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of $A45.10. SECTION 5 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS 5.1 BHP sees dividend fall for a second consecutive year BHP reported dividends per share of $A2.35 in the past year, down 37.8% from the previous year. This is the second consecutive dividend decrease. In the past 2 years average annual compound growth rate of dividends was -30.3%. 5.2 EPS growth [FY2023 vs FY2022] of -58.2%: FY EPS ($) Growth % 2023 2.55 -58.2 2022 6.11 172.6 5.3 Revenue, EPS, and EBITDA: 5-years average annualized earnings growth rate of 29.7% - Revenue growth and EBITDA growth have shown signs of deterioration in recent years. [compared with previous year, all figures in %] FY Revenue Growth EPS Growth EBITDA Growth 2023 -17 -58 -31 2022 14 173 34 2021 33 43 73 5.4 Satisfies 3 out of 9 criteria of Joseph Piotroski [pass mark 5]: - Positive net income. - Positive operating cashflow. - Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income]. But does not meet the following 6 criteria of Joseph Piotroski: - Return on Assets improvement. - Improvement in long-term debt to total assets. - Improvement in current ratio. - Total shares on issue unchanged (or reduction in total shares on issue). - Improvement in gross margin. - Improvement in asset turnover. SECTION 6 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS 6.1 Relative Value Indicators: Undervaluation compared with sector averages Price/Earnings of 11.8 < Materials sector (of 563 stocks) avg of 22.3: - The price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 indicates undervaluation compared with sector average of 22.3 and market average of 25.4. 6.2 Relative Value Indicators: Undervaluation compared with Index averages and bond yield - Earnings yield of 8.5% is more attractive compared with the Australian average earning yield of 3.9%. - The earnings yield of 8.5% is 2.0 times the 10-year bond yield of 4.3%. (All figures in %) Earnings Yield 8.5 Australian avg 3.9 Dividend Yield 5.2 Bond Yield 4.3 Dividend Yield > Bond Yield of 4.3%: The dividend yield of 5.24% is 1.22 times the triple-A bond yield of 4.3%. The times factor of 1.22 is above the benchmark factor of 0.67 times set by Benjamin Graham. (All figures in %) Dividend Yield 5.24 Bond Yield 4.3 Spread 0.94 The Dividend Yield of 5.2% is better than the Index average of 3.7% - The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 5.2%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the All Ordinaries Index of 3.7% is 141.2%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms. Sector P/E Dividend Yield % Forbes 2000 Stock: 11.8; Sector: 19.2 Stock: 5.2; Sector: 0.8 undervalued 6.3 PAST WEEK: WEAK MOMENTUM UP BHP adds 4.6% on below average volume 0.8 times average. Compared with the All Ordinaries Index which rose 90.1 points (or 1.1%) in the week, the relative price increase was 3.9%. Week 20 of 2024: Up 4.6%; BHP (BHP) outperformed the All Ordinaries Index in 4 out of 5 days. The price ranged between a high of $A44.89 on Friday May 17 and a low of $A43.15 on Tuesday May 14. May BHP Close [AUD] Change % Comment Fri 17 Keeps rising, up 4.0% in 3 days 44.89 0.8 Price rise on rising relative strength; RPC=1.3% Thu 16 Up 3.2% in 2 days 44.54 1.0 Rises for a second consecutive day Wed 15 Adds $A5 billion (2.2%) in MCap, top heavyweight rise in All Ordinaries Index 44.09 2.2 Top Rise; RPC=1.9% Tue 14 Decreases 43.15 -0.2 Steepest Fall Mon 13 Inches higher, resistance at 12-day EMA 43.25 0.8 Price rise on rising relative strength * RPC - Relative Price Change is % price change of stock less % change of the All Ordinaries Index. 6.4 Rank in the top 24% by Price Performance in the Australian market Description Value Rank 1-week Price Change % 4.6 In Top 24% 6.5 Other Bullish Signals - Return on Equity of 29.5% versus sector average of 10.0% and market average of 8.5%. - Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 2.2 is less than 5, this compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5. - Return on Assets of 14.1% versus sector average of 5.6% and market average of 1.6%. - Return on Capital Employed of 28.5% versus sector average of 12.0% and market average of 3.1%. - Interest cover defined by EBIT/I is 11.4 times. This indicates it is less leveraged. MCap/Total Assets: - Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 1.5. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued. - Net profit margin has averaged 28.4% in the last 3 years. This is considered superior and suggests a high margin of safety. - As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity is high at 29.5%. This is computed as net profit margin of 26.6% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.53 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 2.1. SECTION 7 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS 7.1 Past four-years - The shares rose $A2.0 (5.1%) a year ago which accelerated to $A3.41 (8.2%) in the past year. - BHP rose for a fourth consecutive year. In the past four years it has risen $A21.35 (90.7%). 7.2 Rank in the top 99% by Liquidity in the Australian market Description Value Rank Ave daily turnover $A328 million In top 99% 7.3 Rank in the top 1% by Size in the Australian market Description Value Rank Ave daily Turnover $A390 million In Top 1% MCap $152 billion In Top 1% Annual Revenue $53.8 billion In Top 1% 7.4 Rank in the top 23% by Performance in the Australian market Description Value Rank EBITDA Margin % 43.6 In Top 23% 7.5 Rank in the top 12% by Productivity in the Australian market Description Value Rank Return on Equity [ROE] % 29.5 In Top 9% Return on Capital Employed [ROCE] % 28.5 In Top 9% Return on Assets [ROA] % 14.1 In Top 12% 7.6 Present Value of AUD1000 Invested in the Past [3 Mo, 1 Yr, 3 Yrs]; The Best Periods with PVAUD1000 > 1,024 PVAUD1,000 3 mo ago 1 yr ago 3 yrs ago BHP.ASX $A1,025 $A1,142 $A1,540 Materials sector $A1,060 $A1,046 $A1,027 All Ordinaries Index $A1,040 $A1,094 $A1,114 7.7 Past 3 years: price rise of 16.4% 3-Year price change of 16.4% for BHP outperformed the change of 11.6% in the All Ordinaries Index for a relative price change of 4.7%. Price Change % 3 Years BHP 16.4 Materials sector 3.3 All Ordinaries Index 11.6 7.8 Buybacks and 5-Years Decrease of 4.9% in Total Shares on Issue In the past 5 years total shares on issue have decreased by 259 million (4.9%) from 5.3 billion to 5.1 billion. Buybacks have averaged 44.3 million shares [0.8%] per financial year. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, there have been declines in issued capital in 2 out of 5 years. A reduction in total shares on issue is a favourable indicator in Joseph Piotroski's 9 indicators. Year End (Jun 30) Total Shares on Issue FY Buybacks Buyback % 2023 5,064,000,000 2023 - - 2022 5,061,000,000 2022 - - 2021 5,057,000,000 2021 - - 2020 5,057,000,000 2020 123,000,000 2.4% 2019 5,180,000,000 2019 143,000,000 2.7% 2018 5,323,000,000 2018 - - Total 266,000,000 Average per FY 44,333,333 7.9 Created Market Value [CMV] past 18 yrs of $A86.3 billion - Market Capitalization has increased by $A124.8 billion from $A102.9 billion to $A227.7 billion in the last 18 years. This increase comprises cumulative retained earnings (RETE) of $A38.5 billion and Created Market Value of $A86.3 billion. The Created Market Value multiple, defined by the change in MCap for every AUD1 of retained earnings is exemplary at $A3.24. 7.10 BHP.ASX Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Best Periods with TSR > 13.7% 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs 30 yrs 14.2 15.3 21.1 17.4 18.9 13.8 7.11 Low Debt to Equity (%) The debt to equity ratio of 46.9% is under a safe benchmark figure of 50%. However, it has deteriorated from 34.9% a year ago. Years Debt to Equity (%) Jun 2023 46.87 Jun 2022 34.87 Jun 2021 37.97 Jun 2020 52.27 Jun 2019 48.15 7.12 Increased Volume, up 17% in 5 years In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has increased 16.7% to 8.1 million shares. Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended May 17, million shares Year ADVT 2024 8.1 2023 9.4 2022 10.1 2021 6.0 2020 6.9 7.13 Increased VWAP, up 73% in 5 years In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has increased by 73.0% to $A43.80. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there has been no decline in VWAP over the last 5 years. Past five years, 12 months ended May 17 (AUD) Year High Price VWAP Low Price 2024 49.58 43.8 39.52 2023 46.33 38.97 31.05 2022 46.55 37.55 29.47 2021 40.33 30.85 24.06 2020 29.94 25.31 17.88 7.14 Increased share turnover, up 88% in 5 years In the past five years, average daily share turnover has increased 87.9% to $A333.1 million. This suggests increased liquidity. Past five years, 12 months ended May 17 (AUD million) Year Average Daily Turnover 2024 333.1 2023 367.3 2022 383.6 2021 186.6 2020 177.3 7.15 Satisfies three criteria of Benjamin Graham - The P/E of 11.8 is 0.3 times the highest average P/E of 34.9 in the last five years. This is a value criterion, according to Benjamin Graham who described as a value criterion "A P/E ratio down to less than four-tenth of the highest average P/E ratio the stock attained in the most recent five years". - "A dividend yield of at least two-thirds the triple-A bond yield"; the stock's dividend yield is 1.2 times the triple-A bond yield of 4.3%. -"Total debt less than tangible book value"; total debt of USD22.7 billion is less than tangible book value of USD46.9 billion.-"Stability of growth in earnings over the last 5 years, defined as no more than two declines of 5% or greater in year-end earnings";there has been only 1 decline in earnings in the last 5 years. SECTION 8 CORPORATE PROFILE AND INDEPENDENT RATINGS 8.1 Activities BHP Group Limited (BHP, formerly BHP Billiton Limited) is a diversified natural resources company producing commodities along with substantial interests in oil and gas. BHP's principal business lines are mineral exploration and production as well as petroleum exploration, production and refining. BHP's assets, operations and interests are separated into Petroleum and Potash, Copper, Iron ore, Coal and Nickel. It is Australia's largest Materials company by market capitalisation. 8.2 Independent Ratings and Relative Value Indicators + Top 100 Polluters: According to environmental non-profit Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) just 100 companies have been the source of more than 70% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions from 1988 to 2015. The CDP ranked BHP Group Limited 20 [rank 1 is worst] in the top 100 polluters. BHP Group Limited contributed .91% of global industrial greenhouse gas emissions in that period. + Newsweek 500: It was ranked 226 by Newsweek and Corporate Knights Capital in the World's 500 Greenest Companies 2016. It had outstanding scores of 7.5% in Waste productivity, 7.3% in Water productivity and 5.2% in Carbon productivity. + Top 40 Miners: It is the largest by MCap among the PwC Top 40 Miners. + Industryweek 1000: It is a new entrant in the Industry Week list of the world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2016, ranked 77. + PwC 100: It was ranked 54 by MCap as at March 31, 2015 by PwC in the Top 100 Global companies; a deterioration over 6 years from rank 19 as at March 31, 2009. + IHS Energy 50: It was ranked 44 in IHS Energy's list of Top 50 Energy Companies 2013; a deterioration over a year from rank 23 in 2012. 8.3 Contact Details Website http://www.bhpbilliton.com/ Physical Address Level 18, 171 Collins Street, MELBOURNE, VIC, AUSTRALIA, 3000 Phone (61) 1300 55 47 57 Fax (61 3) 9609 3015 Email James.Agar@bhpbilliton.com 8.4 Industry & Sector [of 764 stocks] Classification Level Name of Sector Business Sector Mineral Resources Industry Group Metals & Mining Industry Specialty Mining & Metals Economic Sector Basic Materials APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER BHP: EXPORT DATA TO EXCEL: + PRICE VOLUME - 5-YEAR HISTORY + FINANCIALS - 10-YEAR HISTORY [INCLUDING FY 2023]: + PEER COMPARISON BHP: OTHER INFORMATION: + NEWS ARCHIVES - BHP PAST 4 YEARS: + PRICE VOLUME CHARTS + USD vs AUD EXCHANGE RATE CHARTS IN HTML + COPPER COMMODITY PRICE CHARTS IN HTML + COPPER COMMODITY BUZZ IN HTML + BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS ISIN: AU000000BHP4 PermID: 4295856983 RIC: BHP.AX LEI: WZE1WSENV6JSZFK0JC28 Disclaimer: While this document is based on information sources which are considered reliable, it has been prepared without consideration of your specific investment objectives, financial situa